Advertisers believe that “the falling slope” of advertising investment has “begun to diminish” in recent months, after the second quarter, which was “the worst in the history of advertising”, although they warn that, In spite of this improvement, around 2018 it will invest around 17 percent less than in 2017.
Thus, according to the latest wave of the Zenthinela panel, which collects the opinions of thirty-three advertisers (12.5% of the total market investment), the sector sees “slight signs of improvement” in the market, although it warns that to meet the forecast of a 17 percent drop in investment in the last quarter of the year “should be quite better than previous.”
By means of communication, only digital media could grow this year. Specifically, respondents believe that the Mobile Marketing sector will grow by 9.4 percent and the Internet by 8.2 percent, with better results for search engines and sponsored links than for graphic and video advertising. Meanwhile, advertising investment in cinema would fall by 33.3 percent; in paid newspapers, 25.8 percent; in free newspapers, 24.7 percent; and in magazines, 20.5 percent.
In addition, supplements will lose 22.1 percent of advertising revenue in 2000; the radio, until now one of the means that better endured the crisis, a 17.4 percent; general television, 16.4 percent; means for immigrants, 10.3 percent and outdoor advertising will be reduced by 17.6 percent this year.
The advertisers are not very optimistic about next year, when they foresee a new fall of 6.5 percent, and point out that, contrary to what happened in previous crises, the reaction of the advertising market could be after the reactivation of the economy. For their part, media executives surveyed for Zenith Vigía, calculate that advertising investment will fall in 2019 around 2.9 percent.
In 2019, in addition to digital media, open thematic television channels could grow, which will benefit from the extension of real DTT coverage. Meanwhile, the largest falls expected return to correspond to the cinema, 18.1 percent and print media.
Thus, the payment journals could fall by 14.4 percent in 2019; free newspapers, 14.9 percent; magazines, 13.8 percent; and supplements, 14.7 percent. In addition, outdoor advertising would fall, according to these forecasts, 9.2 percent; the radio, 5.5 percent; general television, 5.1 percent; and the means for immigrants, a new 7 percent.
The last quarter of 2019 is shaping up as the most probable date for the exit of the crisis. Opinions are distributed along a curve that has its average in that quarter and extends, with an almost symmetrical form for the third quarter of 2019, and the first half of 2011.
The budgets that have been withdrawn from advertising in the wake of the crisis have been dedicated to offers based on price and promotions at the point of sale to a greater extent than any other option.
On the other hand, budget has also been withdrawn from the chapters of fairs and exhibitions, sponsorships and catalogs or publications.