The advertising market continues its recovery and improves its forecast
The confidence in the recovery, although provisional, is taking hold and this improvement has already been reflected in the advertising markets around the world. Advertising investment accelerates in emerging markets while in more developed countries the recession is ending faster than initially expected. We expect global investment to grow 2.2% in 2010, compared to the 0.9% we announced in December; our second consecutive improvement and therefore much stronger than the first, with 1.3 percentage points of difference in positive compared with 0.4 improvement points in December.
We also improved our forecast for the next 2 years: 4.1% growth in 2011, compared to 3.9%, and 5.3% in 2012, compared to 4.8%. This pattern of recovery is the usual: after the previous 2 recessions, 3 years of progressive growth in the global advertising market were necessary to return to normal growth rates.
After a 12.1% reduction in 2009, developed markets [North America, Western Europe and Japan] are stabilizing and even show signs of strength occasionally. Television in the United Kingdom, which has seen its share reduced since 2005, has grown 7% in the first quarter of 2010, and will grow at least 16% in this second quarter. In the United States, radio has experienced an increase of approximately 20% so far this year thanks in part to the distribution sector; which in turn has doubled its investment. At the moment these data represent only samples of recovery but they show that advertisers are willing to take advantage of good opportunities when they appear.
We estimate a reduction of advertising investment of 0.8% in developed markets in 2010, followed by 1.8% growth in 2011. North America will be the last place to exit the recession period that began, with a fall in advertising investments of 1.5% in 2010, while Japan will do so only 0.7% and Western Europe, on the other hand, will grow slightly by 0.4%.
The rest of the developed countries – not included in the group from North America, Western Europe and Japan – followed 2 very different patterns in 2009. Many markets in Central and Eastern Europe suffered a drastic reduction in advertising investments at the beginning of the year when investors and advertisers feared that the financial crisis and the subsequent global reduction in demand would permanently damage these markets and with it their prospects for development in these countries. The reduction in investments here was infinitely more abrupt than in other markets and thus fell 23.1% in Central and Eastern Europe, up to 42% in Russia, 44% in Latvia and 48% in Ukraine. The initial fears have completely dissipated and we expect these markets to recover quickly: we expect growth of 5.
Other countries were stronger during the crisis. In 2009, advertising investments grew 4.8% in the Middle East, 0.4% in Latin America and remained in the Asia Pacific area (except Japan). Many markets in this area continued to grow notably, such as Lebanon (25.4%), Indonesia (18.8%), the Philippines (14.5%), Argentina (12.7%) and China (7.4%). These figures demonstrate the general health of these markets in which we expect the trends to continue over the next few years. In general terms, the Middle East area will grow 4.7% in 2010, Latin America will grow 9.3% and Asia Pacific (again, except Japan) 10.0%.
Worldwide advertising investment by media
The growth of the Internet has not been interrupted during the recession – in fact, this recession has probably accelerated the change in the budgets destined to the traditional media making advertisers focus their attention on the importance of measuring the results of their investments. The Internet has increased its participation in the global advertising market from 10.5% in 2008 to 12.6% in 2009; It has already surpassed the magazines for the first time and we hope that this participation reaches 17.1% in 2012.
Sponsored links continue to be the engine of Internet growth: they have accounted for 50.2% of all advertising investment in 2009 and will increase this figure to 52.1% in 2012. The contribution of Display advertising on the Internet is reduced by 33.0% in 2008 to 32.0% in 2009, and we expect it to do so again in 2010 until reaching 31.7%, but new formats, especially video – will contribute to making the Internet grow faster than ever and will account for 32.2% of Internet investment in 2012.
Television has suffered less than other media as the audience of this medium increases in times of crisis – it is a cheap way to entertain – In addition, its brand building capacity is a good complement to the strength of the Internet as a generator of response and sales Investment in this medium fell 6.7% in 2009, but its share in global investment by means increased from 38.1% to 39.4%. We hope that this participation continues to grow until reaching 40.6% in 2012, due to the growth of developing countries where television is a dominant medium.
Press and magazines have suffered more than any other medium which has accelerated their structural problems of loss of consumer interest and replacement by other new media.
For 2012 we estimate that the press will represent 19.4% of advertising investment, compared to 25.1% in 2008, while magazines will go from 11.6% to 8% in 2012.