The research company Macquarie Securities has presented a report with the forecasts of the mobile advertising market that shows that the estimated projection of advertising revenues in 2015 will be 14 billion dollars compared to 2 billion in 2009, which means a growth rate 38% annual.
This data is based on the forecasts of eMarketer which estimates that the North American market is 416 million dollars in 2009 and 743 million dollars in 2010, in addition to the prediction of Dentsu for the Japanese market of 1,140 million dollars in 2009 and 500 million for the rest of the world. In this scenario, mobile advertising only represents 1% of total advertising spending but this figure will increase to 3-4% in the next five years.
The study establishes three scenarios about the future of mobile advertising spending. The first, more conservative, assumes that spending on mobile advertising will grow but thanks to the cuts made in other areas not because the advertising market is going to grow. This means that the agencies will grow 0.2% due to the difference in fees, which in the case of mobile advertising is 25% and 16.4% in the rest.
The optimistic scenario suggests that there will be a greater advertising investment and that no area cannibalize the rest, so the agencies will grow by 0.6%. Finally, the aggressive scenario uses the growth rate data of advertising spending of 57% instead of 38%, which would generate an increase of 1.3% for the agencies.